OSINT Digest: What the World Missed This Week.
03 July - 10 July 2025
This week’s OSINT Digest captures a series of developments that, while underreported in mainstream headlines, reflect a broader global pattern: the growing contest between state control and societal resistance, whether in the streets, parliaments, or peripheral regions. From Ethiopia's dam announcement triggering geopolitical strain downstream, to youth-led unrest in Kenya, to tribal clashes in northern Iraq, local flashpoints are increasingly shaped by larger questions of governance, legitimacy, and power projection. In Asia, Myanmar’s forced displacement campaign and the unraveling of Russia-Azerbaijan relations expose how fragile authority structures and unresolved grievances are turning into high-risk crises. In Europe, Switzerland’s internal debate on transgender healthcare and Slovenia’s NATO referendum plans reveal rising domestic polarization even in stable democracies. Meanwhile, China continues to expand its geopolitical reach through both infrastructure projects in South America and influence within multilateral forums like BRICS, showcasing how regional fractures are being matched by global realignment. Across all regions, the stories covered this week underscore a shift toward contested sovereignty and fraying social contracts, often overlooked in broader global narratives.
Topics Covered This Week:
AFRICA
Ethiopia Completes GERDEthiopia declares Grand Renaissance Dam complete, escalating Nile tensions with Egypt and Sudan.
Deadly Saba Saba Protests in KenyaAnti-government protests leave 11 dead and over 500 arrested amid rising public anger over police brutality and economic hardship.
ASIA
Russia-Azerbaijan Diplomatic CrisisTensions spike after Russian raid kills Azerbaijani citizens; Baku responds with arrests, cultural shutdowns, and sharp rhetoric.
Myanmar Airlifts Trigger Mass DisplacementSAC military airlifts in Sagaing’s Pale Township force 25,000 civilians to flee amid looming offensive and worsening humanitarian conditions.
EUROPE
Türkiye Mediates Russia-Azerbaijan StandoffErdogan urges restraint, positioning Türkiye as mediator and highlighting broader regional peace efforts and infrastructure ambitions.
Switzerland Weighs Ban on Gender-Affirming Care for MinorsZurich health officials call for national restrictions, prompting federal review and sparking wider European debate on trans youth healthcare.
Slovenia to Hold NATO ReferendumPM Golob announces consultative vote on NATO membership after internal coalition split over defense spending.
Russia Plans to establish a USAID-Inspired Development Model to expand global influence
LATIN AMERICA
BRICS Summit Pushes Global ReformExpanded BRICS bloc calls for new global financial structures and climate financing but reveals internal geopolitical rifts.
China-Brazil Railway AgreementChina and Brazil sign MOU to study transcontinental railway linking Atlantic and Pacific, advancing Belt and Road influence in South America.
MIDDLE EAST
Tribal Clashes in Iraqi KurdistanFighting between Herki tribe and Barzani Peshmerga erupts in Erbil Governorate over land rights, risking broader unrest.
UK amd Syria re-establish diplomatic ties amid efforts to stabilize the Syrian state
AFRICA
Ethiopia Declares Completion of Grand Renaissance Dam, Escalating Nile Tensions
Ethiopia has officially announced the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest hydroelectric project in Africa, located on the Blue Nile near the border with Sudan. Intended to transform Ethiopia into a major regional power exporter, the dam is now structurally complete after more than a decade of construction. While Addis Ababa views this as a milestone for national development and energy independence, the announcement has reignited tensions with downstream nations, particularly Egypt and Sudan. Egypt has reiterated its longstanding concern that the GERD poses a serious threat to its water security and again criticized Ethiopia for moving forward without a legally binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation. Sudan, meanwhile, expressed similar concerns, especially as the country remains weakened by internal conflict, which limits its diplomatic bandwidth.
The absence of a trilateral agreement continues to be a flashpoint in regional diplomacy. Both Egypt and Sudan depend heavily on Nile water for agriculture, energy, and daily consumption, and argue that unilateral action by Ethiopia undermines cooperative resource management. Ethiopia maintains that the dam is a sovereign right and essential for its economic future. However, the lack of formal consensus raises the risk of prolonged geopolitical instability. The announcement of a planned inauguration ceremony in September only adds urgency to the situation. Without international mediation or a negotiated settlement, the GERD could remain a symbol not just of Ethiopian ambition but of broader regional fracture. As water security becomes an increasingly politicized and strategic issue, the Nile dispute underscores the challenges of managing transboundary resources in a fragmented geopolitical environment.
Deadly Clashes Mark Kenya’s Saba Saba Protests as Public Outrage Mounts
At least 11 people were killed and more than 500 arrested during large-scale anti-government protests across Kenya on July 7, a date commemorated as Saba Saba Day. The demonstrations, which erupted in at least 17 counties, were sparked by deep public frustration over police brutality, corruption, and the rising cost of living. Protesters clashed with riot police in Nairobi and other urban centers, setting bonfires and throwing stones, while police responded with live fire and tear gas. Footage showed young men carrying wounded demonstrators, including one man with a blood-soaked shirt who witnesses said had been shot. Roads leading into the capital were blocked, businesses shuttered, and heavy police deployments surrounded government buildings. Authorities accused demonstrators of engaging in looting and attacks on officers, while the national police service announced 567 arrests and pledged further investigations into reported incidents.
The protests are part of a growing youth-led movement demanding accountability and political reform, galvanized by the death of a blogger in police custody and a widely publicized police shooting last month. Saba Saba, meaning “seven seven” in Swahili, marks the anniversary of Kenya’s 1990 pro-democracy protests against the autocratic rule of then-President Daniel arap Moi. This year, many drew parallels between the current administration and past eras of repression, particularly as security forces blocked public access to central Nairobi and restricted pedestrian movement. Political analysts warned that the government's heavy-handed approach risks backfiring by further alienating the public. Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen defended the crackdown, citing the need for public safety, but human rights groups and opposition figures condemned the use of lethal force. As the crisis unfolds, it is increasingly clear that public trust in the government’s ability to address grievances through dialogue is eroding, while the protest movement continues to grow in both size and resolve.
ASIA
Russia-Azerbaijan Relations Enter Volatile Phase Following Raid and Diplomatic Retaliation
Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have reached their highest point in the post-Soviet period following a Russian special forces operation in Yekaterinburg on June 27 targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis. The raid resulted in the deaths of two Azerbaijani brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, and the detention of dozens more. Eyewitness accounts and Azerbaijani media report the use of torture and degrading treatment during the operation. In response, Azerbaijan’s government launched a criminal investigation into Russian authorities, summoned diplomatic representatives, and publicly condemned the incident as an act of ethnic violence. The fallout has been compounded by unresolved disputes, including the December 2024 crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 over Russian territory, which Baku blames on Russian negligence or hostile action. Russia has denied the allegation. The incident, combined with earlier cyberattacks and media censorship, marks a broader collapse in trust between the two countries.
Azerbaijan’s response has been calibrated but assertive. It includes arrests of Russian citizens on financial and cybercrime charges, the closure of Russian cultural institutions, and the detention of staff from the Sputnik news agency. These actions reflect Baku’s effort to signal its unwillingness to accept what it perceives as a patronizing and unequal relationship with Moscow. While a full diplomatic rupture remains unlikely due to mutual economic dependencies, particularly in the energy and trade sectors, Azerbaijan is clearly leveraging the crisis to redefine its strategic posture. This escalation must be viewed in the broader context of the South Caucasus, where regional balances have shifted significantly in recent years. Following its military successes against Armenia in 2020 and again in 2023, Azerbaijan has grown more confident, backed by energy revenues and deepening ties with Türkiye. Russia, distracted by its war in Ukraine and increasingly strained militarily, has been unable or unwilling to reassert control in the region. Its troop presence at the Gyumri base in Armenia, recently reinforced, signals latent deterrence capabilities, but its appetite for intervention appears limited. The current diplomatic crisis, therefore, represents both a test of Russia’s residual influence and a window into Azerbaijan’s evolving strategy: assertive, self-reliant, and increasingly postured as a regional power recalibrating its alliances.
SAC Airlifts in Sagaing’s Pale Township Trigger Mass Displacement and Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
Myanmar’s State Administration Council (SAC) has launched a sustained aerial reinforcement campaign in Pale Township, Sagaing Region, resulting in the displacement of approximately 25,000 civilians. Since early July, Y-12 transport aircraft and helicopters have been ferrying troops and supplies to the SAC-aligned Pyusawhtee camp in Inn Ma Htee village. These airlifts are reportedly in preparation for a ground offensive aimed at retaking the Kantaung Police Station, which was captured by PLA alliance forces on June 19. Local sources confirm day and night operations, with frequent jet overflights and a heightened military presence prompting residents from 24 nearby villages, including Thar Yet, Hnor Yo, and Myay Ni Kone, to flee to surrounding forests and mountainous terrain. Displaced civilians are enduring harsh conditions, with many lacking food, shelter, and protection amid ongoing rain.
This development underscores the widening human cost of Myanmar’s post-coup conflict, particularly in the country’s central heartland. Since the February 2021 military coup, Sagaing Region has become a stronghold of anti-regime resistance, with local defense forces and ethnic armed organizations challenging SAC control. Pale Township, in particular, has been the site of frequent clashes, ambushes, and military reprisals. The SAC has increasingly relied on airpower to reinforce isolated garrisons and conduct strikes on resistance-held areas, often with severe consequences for civilian populations. The use of Pyusawhtee militias, which are pro-regime paramilitary groups recruited from local communities, has also fueled intercommunal tensions and enabled a counterinsurgency strategy that blurs the line between civilian and combatant. As the SAC prepares for further offensive operations, the humanitarian situation in Pale is rapidly deteriorating. The displacement of thousands adds pressure to an already overstretched aid network, and the broader conflict continues to erode governance, civilian protection, and access to essential services across much of the country.
EUROPE
Ankara Urges Restraint as Erdogan Positions Türkiye as Mediator in Russia-Azerbaijan Crisis
As tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan escalate following the Yekaterinburg raids, Türkiye is stepping into a diplomatic role, urging both sides to avoid actions that could destabilize the wider region. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking aboard his return flight from Azerbaijan, emphasized Ankara’s close relations with both Moscow and Baku and warned against letting recent incidents cause irreparable damage to their ties. Stressing the importance of restraint, Erdogan noted that both countries possess the political maturity to overcome their current crisis and said Türkiye will continue to encourage constructive, diplomatic steps.
Erdogan also praised Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s measured approach to the dispute and reaffirmed Türkiye’s commitment to de-escalation through dialogue. At the same time, the Turkish president tied the moment to broader regional dynamics, particularly the long-anticipated peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Erdogan described the finalization of the peace deal as a historic opportunity and highlighted the strategic significance of the Zangezur Corridor, a planned route connecting mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and ultimately linking China to Europe via Türkiye. He framed the corridor as a geo-economic revolution that will enhance regional connectivity, reinforce the Middle Corridor trade route, and integrate Armenian infrastructure into a larger economic zone. Erdogan’s remarks signal Türkiye’s intention to act not only as a stabilizing force in the South Caucasus but also as a principal architect of the region’s future economic architecture.
Switzerland Weighs Federal Restrictions on Gender-Affirming Care for Minors Amid Broader European Debate
The Swiss Federal Government is expected to review a potential ban on irreversible gender-affirming medical procedures for minors, following recent statements by the Head of the Department of Health in the Canton of Zürich. The official criticized the use of puberty blockers and surgical interventions in children and argued that Switzerland should align its approach with countries like the United Kingdom and Finland, which have introduced significant restrictions on such treatments. In response to growing parental concerns, Zurich authorities have already begun implementing their own limitations on the treatment of transgender minors. Although Switzerland lacks unified national guidelines on gender reassignment for youth, the move from Zurich marks a significant shift in tone and could influence broader policy discussions.
The federal government’s examination of a nationwide ban suggests a turning point in Switzerland’s legal and medical treatment of transgender rights, particularly regarding minors. While the country has generally maintained progressive laws concerning LGBTQ+ individuals, the current debate introduces the possibility of new, more restrictive regulations. If adopted, federal-level restrictions could establish uniform standards that override cantonal autonomy in this area, affecting healthcare providers and families across Switzerland. The move is likely to intensify political and public debate over parental rights, medical ethics, and state oversight, especially at a time when transgender rights are facing increased scrutiny across Europe. The outcome may also shape Switzerland’s influence on similar policy shifts in neighboring countries, reinforcing a broader trend of reevaluating gender-affirming care for minors across the continent.
Slovenia’s NATO Referendum Push Exposes Deepening Political Fault Lines
On July 4, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob announced plans to call a consultative referendum on the country’s continued membership in NATO. The decision follows a surprising parliamentary defeat for the government on a measure tied to increased defense spending, which exposed significant fractures within the ruling coalition. Golob’s own Freedom Movement voted against the proposal, while junior partners—the Social Democrats and The Left—sided with the conservative opposition to support it. Slovenia, a NATO member since 2004, has faced rising internal dissent since the government committed to raise defense spending to as much as 5 percent of GDP by 2035. The country has historically underperformed on NATO’s 2 percent spending target and remains one of the alliance’s least supportive member states in terms of public opinion. The planned referendum is intended to measure the electorate’s stance on continued NATO membership, though it will be non-binding.
The political implications are already extending beyond defense policy. Conservative opposition leader Janez Janša, a vocal nationalist and close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has called for the referendum to be tied to a confidence vote in Golob’s government. Janša, positioning himself for a potential return to power in the 2026 elections, is expected to use the referendum as a launchpad for a populist campaign against the ruling bloc. Comparisons to the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum are being drawn, given both the political context and the high stakes involved. While Slovenia’s vote would not automatically trigger withdrawal from NATO, it introduces a new layer of strategic uncertainty within the alliance. It also signals how internal divisions, rising defense costs, and shifting public sentiment are challenging unity even among long-standing NATO members.
Russia Plans USAID-Inspired Development Model
Yevgeny Primakov, head of Russia’s state cultural diplomacy agency, has announced plans to overhaul the country’s international development strategy, drawing inspiration from U.S. foreign aid models such as USAID. The Russian Foreign Ministry is currently drafting legislation to streamline the approval process for foreign aid projects, which now require individual government decrees. These reforms have accelerated since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, with his administration slashing 83% of USAID programs and laying off 94% of its staff, leaving remaining functions absorbed by the State Department. Russia views the contraction of U.S. aid as a strategic opening to expand its global footprint. While officials insist the goal is not to directly rival USAID, they aim to first match the efforts of smaller countries, such as Finland. Primakov emphasized a focus on direct humanitarian assistance and outlined plans to open 80 offices in 70 countries using newly allocated funds.
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russia has sought to deepen its global influence—particularly in regions beyond its traditional reach. Engagements in Africa, military cooperation with North Korea, and the potential expansion of BRICS reflect this shift. As more nations grow skeptical of Western-led development models, Russia’s efforts could contribute to a broader move toward a multipolar global order. Though still in early stages, Moscow’s renewed focus on foreign aid may reshape geopolitical dynamics, particularly as the U.S. adopts a more isolationist stance.
LATIN AMERICA
BRICS Summit Signals Ambition to Reshape Global Order Amid Internal Divides
The recent BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro marked a significant step in the bloc’s push to reshape global governance and elevate the voice of the Global South. Now expanded to ten members, including Indonesia and Egypt, BRICS leaders issued the Rio Declaration calling for institutional reform, reduced dependence on Western-led financial systems, and greater climate financing from wealthy nations. China emphasized a development model centered on green technology, artificial intelligence, and industrial modernization. The group also endorsed initiatives aimed at currency diversification and payment system integration, including plans for cross-border central bank digital currencies and the "R5" monetary mechanism. The New Development Bank announced intentions to increase green lending and expand its reach, although questions remain about its funding capacity and operational scope.
Despite growing momentum, the summit exposed familiar internal divides. Disagreements surfaced over geopolitical flashpoints such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, and longstanding friction between India and China continues to limit the bloc’s cohesion. Nevertheless, BRICS is asserting itself as a legitimate counterweight to the G7, with increasing global relevance due to its economic scale and demographic influence. The success of the summit now hinges on implementation. If the bloc can translate declarations into functioning financial infrastructure and credible development frameworks, it may redefine the balance of global power. Brazil’s role as rotating chair will be pivotal in turning these ambitions into tangible outcomes.
China and Brazil Sign MOU to Explore Feasibility of Transcontinental Railway Linking Atlantic to Pacific
China and Brazil have signed a memorandum of understanding to begin studying the feasibility of constructing a transcontinental railway that would connect Brazil’s Atlantic coast to the deep-water port of Chancay on Peru’s Pacific coast. The proposed railway, approximately 4,500 kilometers in length, would create a new commercial corridor for Brazilian exports, particularly agricultural goods destined for Asian markets. The agreement was signed between China’s Railway Economic and Planning Research Institute, a subsidiary of the state-owned China State Railway Group, and Brazil’s Infra S.A., under the Ministry of Transport. The project is designed to reduce reliance on maritime routes through the Panama Canal and strengthen South America’s integration into East Asia’s supply chains. If completed, it would be one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects in the hemisphere.
This development marks a significant step forward for China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South America and signals growing geopolitical realignment in the region. The railway would connect directly to the Chinese-financed port of Chancay in Peru, creating a high-efficiency export route across the continent. While various “bioceanic corridor” proposals have been debated in recent decades, this agreement represents the most formal and coordinated effort to date between China and Brazil. The initiative is likely to face scrutiny over environmental concerns, especially if the railway crosses parts of the Amazon basin. Nevertheless, it underscores Beijing’s strategic intent to diversify global trade corridors, reduce exposure to maritime chokepoints like the Panama Canal, and expand its economic influence in areas historically aligned with the United States. A successful outcome would entrench long-term economic interdependence between China and South American economies, reinforcing a multipolar shift in global infrastructure development.
MIDDLE EAST
Herki-Peshmerga Clashes Erupt in Erbil, Exposing Tribal Tensions and Political Fragility
Clashes between the Herki tribe and Barzani-led Peshmerga forces escalated sharply in the Khabat district west of Erbil beginning on July 8, 2025, following a Peshmerga attempt to arrest tribal leader Khurshid Herki over a long-running land dispute. Herki loyalists responded with ambushes and roadblocks, firing weapons and burning military vehicles, including two Humvees. The fighting left two dead, one Peshmerga-linked fighter and one Herki tribesman, and several others wounded. The conflict expanded into nearby villages like Gardarash and Qarahanjir, where Herki supporters blocked roads with burning tires and resisted arrest efforts by security forces.
The violence reflects deeper tensions over land and irrigation rights between the Herki and rival tribes, exacerbated by recent actions such as rerouting a tributary of the Great Zab River. Kurdish authorities have dispatched reinforcements and initiated negotiations with tribal elders in an effort to prevent further escalation. Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s administration has called for calm, while Herki leaders, including Jawhar Agha Herki, have publicly rejected government authority, framing the confrontation as resistance against political marginalization. The events underscore growing fragility within Iraqi Kurdistan and threaten to spark broader tribal insurgency or even civil conflict if structural grievances are not addressed.
United Kingdom Restores Diplomatic Ties with Syria
On July 5, 2025, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, marking the first visit by a British minister to Syria in 14 years. The visit included a commitment of £94.5 million in humanitarian aid and support for Syria’s long-term recovery following nearly a decade of civil war. This development comes as the new Syrian government seeks to consolidate its authority and establish legitimacy both domestically and on the international stage as it struggles to secure itself following terror attacks and continued religious tension in the country.
Western powers, including the United States, have lifted long-standing sanctions on Syria and have actively encouraged engagement with the new administration. Syria’s reintegration into the international community presents new opportunities for regional diplomacy and shifts the established geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. With the easing of sanctions and evolving foreign relations, Secretary Lammy expressed hopes that a stable Syria will help curb irregular migration, ensure the dismantlement of chemical weapons, and address ongoing security threats. The UK intends to work closely with its Western allies to expand their strategic and economic presence in the region, while supporting Syria in navigating the complex challenges of achieving lasting stability and international recognition.
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